Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 39¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$2.2K
-$434.14
39.1¢ → 38.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$298.85 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 36.2¢ | $289.23 | $283.79 | -$37.42 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 38.1¢ | $295.59 | $193.85 | -$101.73 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 61¢ | $83.91 | $100.42 | +$16.51 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 72.7¢ | $31.84 | $27.38 | -$4.46 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $24.52 | $16.13 | -$8.39 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $9.36 | $9.6 | +$0.24 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $3.49 | $3.45 | -$0.04 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$1,629.27
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$298.85
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$289.23
Value
$283.79
PnL
-$37.42
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$295.59
Value
$193.85
PnL
-$101.73
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
0xheavy888Invested
$83.91
Value
$100.42
PnL
+$16.51
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$27.38
PnL
-$4.46
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$24.52
Value
$16.13
PnL
-$8.39
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.49
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.