FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 5.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$6.3K
-$222.21
96.7¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 96.8¢ | $5.9K | $6.1K | +$136.4 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 10¢ | $407.97 | $142.79 | -$265.18 | 32% 729-1552 (2281) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $50.4 | $53.8 | +$3.4 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.6¢ | $80.62 | $30.9 | -$49.72 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.4¢ | $51.74 | $15.14 | -$36.61 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.5¢ | $16.98 | $6.9 | -$10.08 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $5.42 | $5 | -$0.42 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$5,924.66
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$136.4
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$407.97
Value
$142.79
PnL
-$265.18
Record
32%
729-1552 (2281)
Invested
$50.4
Value
$53.8
PnL
+$3.4
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$80.62
Value
$30.9
PnL
-$49.72
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$51.74
Value
$15.14
PnL
-$36.61
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$16.98
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$10.08
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.42
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.42
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.