FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$300.4

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 99.4¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,352

Combined PnL+$249.83

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares9,561

Combined PnL+$50.57

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 93.5¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$250.33	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 21¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$240.58	32% 729-1552 (2281)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 79¢	$50.56	$46.72	-$3.84	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 97.8¢	$33.22	$33.75	+$0.53	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
RN1CTR	Overavg 5.9¢	$185.83	$20.53	-$165.3	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 73¢	$6.02	$8.2	+$2.17	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 78¢	$2.34	$2.98	+$0.64	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$24.99	$2.32	-$22.67	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$2	$0.26	-$1.74	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.4¢	$0.56	$0.26	-$0.3	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,965.34

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$250.33

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$1,250.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$240.58

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$50.56

Value

$46.72

PnL

-$3.84

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$33.22

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$0.53

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$185.83

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$165.3

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$6.02

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$2.17

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$22.67

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.74

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.