Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 30¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$1.78

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 30¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares9,833

Combined PnL-$63.17

Under4 traders

Total Value$676.12

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$64.95

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 39¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$0	32% 729-1552 (2281)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 61¢	$563.77	$628.46	+$64.69	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$453.54	$181.7	-$59.05	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$63.8	$56.55	-$3.63	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$41.48	$41.82	+$0.34	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$6.35	$5.85	-$0.5	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 59¢	$3.82	$3.78	-$0.03	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60¢	$2.1	$2.05	-$0.05	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$3,578.27

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$563.77

Value

$628.46

PnL

+$64.69

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$453.54

Value

$181.7

PnL

-$59.05

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.8

Value

$56.55

PnL

-$3.63

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.48

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.35

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.