FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 64¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 31

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 64¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares16,245

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Over8 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares15,054

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 70.8¢	$8.7K	$5.6K	$-3.1K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 61¢	$5.7K	$5.4K	-$281.34	32% 729-1552 (2281)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 26.3¢	$897.59	$2.0K	+$1.1K	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$83.6	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$921.89	$1.1K	+$149.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$410.72	$345.13	-$65.6
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 39¢	$977.6	$1.0K	+$71.68	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 19.4¢	$332.12	$918.2	+$586.08	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 39¢	$390.49	$419.22	+$28.73	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 32.1¢	$215.67	$390.26	+$174.59	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
CA Cannae	Underavg 39¢	$220.88	$390.07	+$164.9	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 53¢	$250	$197.45	-$52.55	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 43¢	$102.77	$100.04	-$2.73	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 43.4¢	$59.33	$57.23	-$2.11	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 49¢	$40.55	$34.64	-$5.91	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$30.45	$31.37	+$0.92	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 39¢	$28.86	$30.98	+$2.12	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 39¢	$11.7	$12.56	+$0.86	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$10.96	$11.49	+$0.53	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.9	$5.81	+$2.91	74% 1592-569 (2161)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 59¢	$5.9	$4.19	-$1.71	51% 1450-1393 (2843)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$3.8	$3.16	-$0.64	59% 10191-7178 (17369)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$8,700.55

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$5,720.63

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$281.34

Record

32%

729-1552 (2281)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$897.59

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,332.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$83.6

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Over$921.8950¢+$149.19

Under$410.7249.8¢-$65.6

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$977.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$71.68

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$332.12

Value

$918.2

PnL

+$586.08

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$390.49

Value

$419.22

PnL

+$28.73

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$215.67

Value

$390.26

PnL

+$174.59

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$220.88

Value

$390.07

PnL

+$164.9

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$197.45

PnL

-$52.55

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$102.77

Value

$100.04

PnL

-$2.73

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$59.33

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$2.11

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$40.55

Value

$34.64

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.45

Value

$31.37

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$28.86

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$0.86

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.96

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$2.91

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$1.71

Record

51%

1450-1393 (2843)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0.64

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.