Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $458 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$458.03

Combined PnL

-$517.59

Smart Money Entry

21.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$385.1

Total Shares385

Combined PnL+$52.39

Under6 traders

Total Value$72.93

Total Shares3,026

Combined PnL-$569.99

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Overavg 79¢	$165.36	$182.26	+$16.9	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 82.8¢	$113.73	$137.23	+$23.5	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
RN1CTR	Underavg 29.5¢	$114	$50.75	-$63.26	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 89¢	$37.97	$39.98	+$2.01	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 61¢	$15.64	$25.63	+$9.99	51% 3416-3341 (6757)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$35.55	$20.91	+$29.28	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 20.8¢	$442.99	$1.06	-$441.93	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 20.4¢	$46.26	$0.11	-$46.15	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 29.1¢	$41.35	$0.07	-$41.28	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 18.9¢	$6.67	$0.02	-$6.66	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

foooool

Over

Invested

$165.36

Value

$182.26

PnL

+$16.9

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$113.73

Value

$137.23

PnL

+$23.5

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$114

Value

$50.75

PnL

-$63.26

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$37.97

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$2.01

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$15.64

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$9.99

Record

51%

3416-3341 (6757)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.55

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$29.28

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$442.99

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$441.93

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.26

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$46.15

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.35

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$41.28

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.66

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.