Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.0K
$15.82
76.9¢ → 77.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 77¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$11.67 | 67% 2633-1282 (3915) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $113.42 | $111.42 | +$3.41 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $22.31 | $22.82 | +$0.51 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $16.94 | $17.05 | +$0.11 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $5.7 | $5.78 | +$0.11 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$1,797.78
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$11.67
Record
67%
2633-1282 (3915)
VeryLucky888Invested
$113.42
Value
$111.42
PnL
+$3.41
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$22.82
PnL
+$0.51
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$17.05
PnL
+$0.11
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.