Will FC Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?

9 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 98.7¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 24 top traders (38%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares15,193

Combined PnL+$274.89

Yes15 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares20,359

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 79.5¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$127.39	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$28.94	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
oieshfn345	Noavg 73.4¢	$980.47	$1.1K	+$92.94	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$700	$689.73	-$10.27	46% 69-80 (149)
RN1	Noavg 88¢	$513.62	$510.7	-$2.92	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.4¢	$410.19	$447.49	+$37.3	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$360	$359.04	+$7.48	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 81.5¢	$208.59	$206	-$2.59	63% 1767-1049 (2816)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 80.5¢	$200	$199.99	-$0.01	67% 23335-11740 (35075)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$1.7K	$136.83	$-1.6K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
poshposh	Noavg 92¢	$138	$131.25	-$6.75	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$166.88	$113.4	-$53.48	48% 922-993 (1915)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$105.79	$79.34	-$26.45	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$26.45	$61.92	-$0.14	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$60.56	$58.78	-$1.78	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$38.88	$38.88	-$0.81	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
noosh3CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$35	$34.4	-$0.6	52% 269-244 (513)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.2¢	$29.66	$32.16	+$2.5	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$36.25	$28.75	-$7.5	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$25.62	$25.62	-$0	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$15.14	$9.39	-$5.75	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$8.41	$8.56	+$0.15	59% 2554-1782 (4336)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$6	$6.58	+$0.58	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.7	$2.65	-$0.05	51% 1446-1390 (2836)

Anon455

Invested

$5,106.21

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$127.39

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,686.75

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$28.94

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

oieshfn345

Invested

$980.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$92.94

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$689.73

PnL

-$10.27

Record

46%

69-80 (149)

RN1

Invested

$513.62

Value

$510.7

PnL

-$2.92

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$410.19

Value

$447.49

PnL

+$37.3

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$360

Value

$359.04

PnL

+$7.48

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$208.59

Value

$206

PnL

-$2.59

Record

63%

1767-1049 (2816)

pauleta23

Invested

$200

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

67%

23335-11740 (35075)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,717.77

Value

$136.83

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

poshposh

Invested

$138

Value

$131.25

PnL

-$6.75

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.88

Value

$113.4

PnL

-$53.48

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.79

Value

$79.34

PnL

-$26.45

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.45

Value

$61.92

PnL

-$0.14

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.56

Value

$58.78

PnL

-$1.78

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.88

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

noosh3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$34.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

269-244 (513)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.66

Value

$32.16

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.25

Value

$28.75

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.62

Value

$25.62

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.14

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$5.75

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.41

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

2554-1782 (4336)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 24 top traders (38%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.