Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$189.23

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 99.8¢

+37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,304

Combined PnL+$590.73

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.43

Total Shares1,244

Combined PnL-$401.5

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 73.3¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$567.57	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
FO foooool	Underavg 67.5¢	$101.99	$114.57	+$12.58	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 81¢	$20	$24.64	+$4.64	63% 1114-643 (1757)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 72.6¢	$15.86	$21.8	+$5.94	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 38.1¢	$391.85	$2.06	-$389.79	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$0.98	$0.95	-$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.7¢	$1.81	$0.21	-$1.6	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$3.2	$0.08	-$3.12	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$2.4	$0.08	-$2.32	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$4.69	$0.05	-$4.64	49% 7982-8322 (16304)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,571.11

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$567.57

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

foooool

Under

Invested

$101.99

Value

$114.57

PnL

+$12.58

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$24.64

PnL

+$4.64

Record

63%

1114-643 (1757)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$15.86

Value

$21.8

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$391.85

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$389.79

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.6

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$3.12

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.32

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.69

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.64

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.