Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,138

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.74

Total Shares2,858

Combined PnL-$494.31

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 69.6¢	$3.2K	$4.6K	+$1.4K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 54.9¢	$673.89	$1.2K	+$553.98	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 43.8¢	$58.21	$132.96	+$44.89	48% 927-999 (1926)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 36¢	$31.29	$59.97	+$24.34	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
RO Rocko33<$100	Underavg 64.6¢	$20	$30.94	+$10.94	63% 1114-643 (1757)
RN1CTR	Overavg 9¢	$152.19	$13.09	-$139.1	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69¢	$5.52	$8	+$2.48	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 31.9¢	$280.48	$0.44	-$280.04	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 25.3¢	$49.78	$0.1	-$49.68	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$24.99	$0.09	-$24.9	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.5¢	$0.6	$0.02	-$0.58	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,237.89

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$673.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$553.98

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$58.21

Value

$132.96

PnL

+$44.89

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$31.29

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$24.34

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Rocko33<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$30.94

PnL

+$10.94

Record

63%

1114-643 (1757)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$152.19

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$139.1

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

PnL

+$2.48

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$280.48

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$280.04

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.78

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$49.68

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$24.9

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.