Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold SC Paderborn 07 (50%) · SC Paderborn 07 at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Borussia Mönchengladbach<1¢SC Paderborn 07>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SC Paderborn 07

Consensus Traders

SC Paderborn 07 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$97.93

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 99.4¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSC Paderborn 07 at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SC Paderborn 07

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Borussia Mönchengladbach1%

SC Paderborn 0799%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SC Paderborn 074 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL+$103.49

Borussia Mönchengladbach4 traders

Total Value$138.95

Total Shares1,069

Combined PnL-$5.56

SC Paderborn 07 — 50%Borussia Mönchengladbach — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	SC Paderborn 07avg 94¢	$825.91	$872.92	+$47.01	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
FO foooool	SC Paderborn 07avg 81.9¢	$230	$279.28	+$49.28	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 24¢	$75.06	$72.28	-$2.78	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
VeryLucky888CTR	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 24¢	$67.5	$65	-$2.5	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
SN SnakeBall<$100	SC Paderborn 07avg 90.9¢	$28	$30.62	+$2.61	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTrading<$100	SC Paderborn 07avg 76.8¢	$19.96	$24.55	+$4.59	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 22¢	$1.37	$1.02	-$0.35	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Borussia Mönchengladbachavg 22¢	$0.58	$0.65	+$0.08	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

SC Paderborn 07

Invested

$825.91

Value

$872.92

PnL

+$47.01

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

foooool

SC Paderborn 07

Invested

$230

Value

$279.28

PnL

+$49.28

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$75.06

Value

$72.28

PnL

-$2.78

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

VeryLucky888CTR

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$67.5

Value

$65

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

SnakeBall<$100

SC Paderborn 07

Invested

$28

Value

$30.62

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTrading<$100

SC Paderborn 07

Invested

$19.96

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$4.59

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

CannaeCTR<$100

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralSC Paderborn 07 at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SC Paderborn 07

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SC Paderborn 07 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.