Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$158.12

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 71¢

-10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,352

Combined PnL-$151.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$160.15

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$6.84

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 82¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$198.21	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$257.07	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$219.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$990.94	$514.69	-$476.25
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.46	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.6¢	$756.12	$866.73	+$110.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$557.7	$457.55	-$100.16
RN1	Noavg 80.1¢	$772.83	$805.36	+$32.53	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$671.27	$673.38	-$14.69	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 69¢	$620.74	$638.74	+$17.99	67% 2633-1282 (3915)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.1¢	$331.49	$331.97	+$0.48	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$516.11	$141.93	-$2.58	48% 927-999 (1926)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 77.6¢	$111.89	$115.61	+$3.71	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$74.96	$61.41	-$13.54	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$49.98	$36.59	-$13.39
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$24.98	$24.82	-$0.16
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73¢	$51.28	$58.7	+$7.42	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$20.58	$16.44	-$4.14	63% 1767-1049 (2816)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 84¢	$6.35	$5.77	-$0.58	54% 6286-5324 (11610)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.95	$4.95	+$0.05	48% 2396-2627 (5023)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.9	$1.79	-$0.11	53% 2174-1925 (4099)

oieshfn345

Invested

$4,256.72

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$198.21

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$2,542.57

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$257.07

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Both legs:

No$1,551.6374.9¢+$219.18

Yes$990.9427.9¢-$476.25

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,313.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.46

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

Both legs:

No$756.1274.6¢+$110.62

Yes$557.717.7¢-$100.16

RN1

Invested

$772.83

Value

$805.36

PnL

+$32.53

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$671.27

Value

$673.38

PnL

-$14.69

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$620.74

Value

$638.74

PnL

+$17.99

Record

67%

2633-1282 (3915)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$331.49

Value

$331.97

PnL

+$0.48

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$516.11

Value

$141.93

PnL

-$2.58

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$111.89

Value

$115.61

PnL

+$3.71

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.96

Value

$61.41

PnL

-$13.54

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Yes$49.9828¢-$13.39

No$24.9880¢-$0.16

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$58.7

PnL

+$7.42

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.58

Value

$16.44

PnL

-$4.14

Record

63%

1767-1049 (2816)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.