Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 57¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 31

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

-$444.4

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 57.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares17,183

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,066

Combined PnL+$938.13

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 55.7¢	$8.7K	$7.5K	$-1.3K	49% 19132-19523 (38655)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$3.5K	$4.2K	+$680	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$340	53% 5621-4966 (10587)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$888.18	$1.0K	-$59.7	74% 6661-2381 (9042)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 54¢	$807.56	$710.36	-$97.2	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$460	$385.08	-$29.83	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$56.8	$64.58	+$7.78	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$37.1	$37.1	-$0.39	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.63	+$0.27	48% 2366-2607 (4973)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$8,736.78

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

19132-19523 (38655)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,520

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$680

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,760

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$340

Record

53%

5621-4966 (10587)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$888.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$59.7

Record

74%

6661-2381 (9042)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$807.56

Value

$710.36

PnL

-$97.2

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$460

Value

$385.08

PnL

-$29.83

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.8

Value

$64.58

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.1

Value

$37.1

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.