Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 77¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 76.5¢

+68% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares10,504

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,527

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.4¢	$3.9K	$5.8K	+$1.8K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 51.8¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$901.68	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 30.2¢	$401.61	$805.33	+$403.72	48% 922-993 (1915)
RN1	Yesavg 54.8¢	$239.11	$246.41	+$7.3	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 40.2¢	$131.71	$198.34	+$66.64	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 74.5¢	$190.91	$182.93	+$7.22	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 69.1¢	$170.43	$78.48	-$91.95	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$71.72	$68.54	-$3.18	63% 1767-1049 (2816)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$61.74	$59.98	-$1.77	56% 539-425 (964)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$59.74	$53.53	-$6.21	53% 426-381 (807)
oieshfn345<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$34.22	$35.19	+$0.97	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.5	$32.55	+$1.05	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$41.59	$22.98	-$18.61	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$22.5	-$2.5	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$26.16	$21.19	-$4.97	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$10.96	$15.23	+$4.26	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$3,947.2

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$2,868.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$901.68

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$401.61

Value

$805.33

PnL

+$403.72

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$239.11

Value

$246.41

PnL

+$7.3

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$131.71

Value

$198.34

PnL

+$66.64

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$190.91

Value

$182.93

PnL

+$7.22

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$170.43

Value

$78.48

PnL

-$91.95

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Invested

$71.72

Value

$68.54

PnL

-$3.18

Record

63%

1767-1049 (2816)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Invested

$61.74

Value

$59.98

PnL

-$1.77

Record

56%

539-425 (964)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Invested

$59.74

Value

$53.53

PnL

-$6.21

Record

53%

426-381 (807)

oieshfn345<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.22

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$0.97

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$1.05

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$41.59

Value

$22.98

PnL

-$18.61

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$26.16

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$4.97

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.96

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$4.26

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.