Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$1.5K
43.6¢ → 98.5¢
+126% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 43.2¢ | $1.3K | $2.9K | +$1.6K | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $437.16 | $312.76 | -$124.4 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 64¢ | $192 | $199.5 | +$7.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 64¢ | $128 | $133 | +$5 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $111.38 | $71.92 | -$39.46 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $96.3 | $38.77 | -$57.52 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $15.08 | $33.14 | +$18.06 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $31.89 | $45.02 | +$13.13 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $24.45 | $25.37 | +$0.91 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
Invested
$1,296.94
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$437.16
Value
$312.76
PnL
-$124.4
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$192
Value
$199.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$128
Value
$133
PnL
+$5
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$111.38
Value
$71.92
PnL
-$39.46
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$31.89
Value
$45.02
PnL
+$13.13
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$24.45
Value
$25.37
PnL
+$0.91
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.