Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 7

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$388.07

Combined PnL

-$27.1

Smart Money Entry

11.7¢ → 9.5¢

-19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$258.61

Total Shares2,369

Combined PnL-$29.55

No4 traders

Total Value$129.47

Total Shares144

Combined PnL+$2.45

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$106.95	$106.95	-$4.86	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 88¢	$101.31	$103.61	+$2.3	64% 2037-1134 (3171)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$72.95	$72.88	-$10	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$30.15	$26.47	-$1.2	50% 1834-1824 (3658)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$25.16	$21.57	-$3.59	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$14.78	$12.98	-$0.59	46% 8764-10458 (19222)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$21.64	$12.56	-$8.82	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 88¢	$12.04	$12.31	+$0.07	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9	$9.05	+$0.05	54% 10438-8758 (19196)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.5	+$0.03	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$2.9	$2.75	-$0.15	52% 9006-8159 (17165)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.44	$2.44	-$0.33	48% 7449-7981 (15430)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.95

Value

$106.95

PnL

-$4.86

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$101.31

Value

$103.61

PnL

+$2.3

Record

64%

2037-1134 (3171)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.95

Value

$72.88

PnL

-$10

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.15

Value

$26.47

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

1834-1824 (3658)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.16

Value

$21.57

PnL

-$3.59

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.78

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.59

Record

46%

8764-10458 (19222)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.64

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$8.82

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9006-8159 (17165)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

7449-7981 (15430)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.