SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$4.6K
-$924.09
88.7¢ → 72.5¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 88.6¢ | $3.3K | $2.6K | -$620.1 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 88.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$320.35 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 11¢ | $549.91 | $549.91 | -$0 | 32% 723-1549 (2272) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 89¢ | $55.18 | $55.18 | +$0 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $18.12 | $34.49 | +$16.37 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
Invested
$3,268.92
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$620.1
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$1,635.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$320.35
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$549.91
Value
$549.91
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
723-1549 (2272)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$55.18
Value
$55.18
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$18.12
Value
$34.49
PnL
+$16.37
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.