SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 79¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$5.0K
$8.68
76.8¢ → 78.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 76.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$9.42 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 77¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 23¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 32% 723-1549 (2272) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $50.82 | $50.82 | +$0 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
0X 0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $20 | $19.17 | -$0.83 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $1.86 | $1.95 | +$0.08 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
Invested
$2,462.27
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$9.42
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$1,293.4
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$1,150
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
723-1549 (2272)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.82
Value
$50.82
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.17
PnL
-$0.83
Record
—
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.08
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.