Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 40¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$5.7K
-$65.58
42¢ → 39.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $5.7K | $5.6K | -$67.5 | 32% 723-1549 (2272) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $56.75 | $59.28 | +$2.53 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $42.8 | $42.27 | -$0.53 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $17.11 | $16.97 | -$0.14 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $2.15 | $2.29 | +$0.14 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.07 | -$0.08 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
Invested
$5,670
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$67.5
Record
32%
723-1549 (2272)
Invested
$56.75
Value
$59.28
PnL
+$2.53
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$42.8
Value
$42.27
PnL
-$0.53
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$17.11
Value
$16.97
PnL
-$0.14
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.29
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.08
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.