Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 17¢ · $542 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$542.1
$1.9
17¢ → 17¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR | Underavg 17¢ | $289.68 | $289.68 | +$0 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $93.16 | $94.3 | +$1.14 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $90.47 | $90.47 | +$0 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $39.84 | $39.84 | -$0 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 16.6¢ | $26.36 | $26.94 | +$0.58 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $0.88 | +$0.18 | 38% 377-620 (997) |
Invested
$289.68
Value
$289.68
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
Invested
$93.16
Value
$94.3
PnL
+$1.14
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$90.47
Value
$90.47
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$39.84
Value
$39.84
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$26.36
Value
$26.94
PnL
+$0.58
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
38%
377-620 (997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.