Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold SV 07 Elversberg (63%) · SV 07 Elversberg at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

1. FSV Mainz 05<1¢SV 07 Elversberg>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SV 07 Elversberg

Consensus Traders

SV 07 Elversberg 63%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$182.17

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99.7¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSV 07 Elversberg at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SV 07 Elversberg

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

1. FSV Mainz 050%

SV 07 Elversberg100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SV 07 Elversberg5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$7.76

1. FSV Mainz 053 traders

Total Value$479.01

Total Shares1,955

Combined PnL+$174.41

SV 07 Elversberg — 63%1. FSV Mainz 05 — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	SV 07 Elversbergavg 99.6¢	$921.63	$923.02	+$1.39	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 14.1¢	$241.26	$418.95	+$177.68	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
0xheavy888	SV 07 Elversbergavg 74¢	$122.1	$124.58	+$2.48	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
CA Cannae	SV 07 Elversbergavg 74¢	$120.7	$123.11	+$2.41	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 26.4¢	$50.41	$46.86	-$3.54	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
HRTrading<$100	SV 07 Elversbergavg 86¢	$18.28	$19.61	+$1.33	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	1. FSV Mainz 05avg 24¢	$12.93	$13.2	+$0.27	52% 4715-4427 (9142)
VeryLucky888<$100	SV 07 Elversbergavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.6	+$0.16	58% 41515-30150 (71665)

RN1

SV 07 Elversberg

Invested

$921.63

Value

$923.02

PnL

+$1.39

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

GoalLineGhostCTR

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$241.26

Value

$418.95

PnL

+$177.68

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

0xheavy888

SV 07 Elversberg

Invested

$122.1

Value

$124.58

PnL

+$2.48

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

Cannae

SV 07 Elversberg

Invested

$120.7

Value

$123.11

PnL

+$2.41

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$50.41

Value

$46.86

PnL

-$3.54

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

HRTrading<$100

SV 07 Elversberg

Invested

$18.28

Value

$19.61

PnL

+$1.33

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

hi774cCTR<$100

1. FSV Mainz 05

Invested

$12.93

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

4715-4427 (9142)

VeryLucky888<$100

SV 07 Elversberg

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

Research grade

NeutralSV 07 Elversberg at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

SV 07 Elversberg

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SV 07 Elversberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.