Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-10-30?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
$204.47
46¢ → 47.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$132.36 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$45.96 | 50% 24855-24561 (49416) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $690 | $712.5 | +$22.5 | 58% 41497-30120 (71617) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $640.29 | $647.25 | +$6.96 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $313.75 | $310.42 | -$3.34 | 55% 1725-1417 (3142) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $91.18 | $91.73 | +$0.54 | 58% 28416-20976 (49392) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $53.52 | $53.02 | -$0.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.2¢ | $37.66 | $38.71 | +$1.05 | |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $26.72 | $26.72 | +$0 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0.03 | 47% 2262-2550 (4812) |
Invested
$4,059.01
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$132.36
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$1,409.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$45.96
Record
50%
24855-24561 (49416)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$690
Value
$712.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
58%
41497-30120 (71617)
Invested
$640.29
Value
$647.25
PnL
+$6.96
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$313.75
Value
$310.42
PnL
-$3.34
Record
55%
1725-1417 (3142)
Invested
$91.18
Value
$91.73
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
28416-20976 (49392)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.72
Value
$26.72
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2262-2550 (4812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.