Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 1st Half O/U 1.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.25

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$366.77

Total Shares431

Combined PnL+$76.95

Under9 traders

Total Value$854.43

Total Shares2,089

Combined PnL-$79.19

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Overavg 56.6¢	$248.95	$321.54	+$80.76	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 33¢	$330	$245	-$85	48% 771-834 (1605)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 55.9¢	$202.88	$207.98	+$5.1	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 54.8¢	$181.77	$194.22	+$12.45	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 54¢	$162	$175.5	+$13.5	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 45¢	$49.05	$45.24	-$3.81	50% 6970-6970 (13940)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1.2	$14.25	+$13.05	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.52	$9.03	+$7.51	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$4.29	$8.36	+$4.07	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 25.2¢	$46.55	$0.09	-$46.46	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$3.42	$0	-$3.42	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$248.95

Value

$321.54

PnL

+$80.76

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$330

Value

$245

PnL

-$85

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$202.88

Value

$207.98

PnL

+$5.1

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$181.77

Value

$194.22

PnL

+$12.45

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$162

Value

$175.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$49.05

Value

$45.24

PnL

-$3.81

Record

50%

6970-6970 (13940)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$13.05

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.52

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$7.51

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.29

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$4.07

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.55

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$46.46

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

PnL

-$3.42

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.