Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-30?

11 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (48%) · Yes at 94¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 30

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 48%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 93.5¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 23 top traders (48%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares14,646

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No12 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,058

Combined PnL+$0.95

Yes — 48%No — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL olpy	Yesavg 75.5¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$59.86	72% 390-148 (538)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 67.7¢	$3.3K	$4.3K	+$986.78	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$271.29	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 37¢	$750.84	$1.6K	+$880.72	63% 1756-1042 (2798)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$131.51	56% 2860-2289 (5149)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$472.22	$823.77	+$246.61
└ No leg	Noavg 52.9¢	$636.68	$258.57	-$378.11
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 94¢	$999.99	$994.67	-$5.32	89% 911-116 (1027)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 25¢	$951.8	$994.25	+$42.45	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
└ No leg	Noavg 25¢	$807.95	$760.68	-$47.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.1¢	$143.85	$233.57	+$89.72
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 73.8¢	$618.1	$592.08	-$15.5	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 73¢	$577.24	$569.22	-$8.02	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
bernardi22ARB<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$1.8K	$567.19	-$69.21	56% 1267-984 (2251)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$360.78	$392.47	+$34.87
└ No leg	Noavg 26¢	$232.96	$174.72	-$104.08
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 44.5¢	$574.35	$320.81	-$36.82	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 65.6¢	$380.48	$304.37	-$76.11	52% 13732-12533 (26265)
HRTrading	Yesavg 91.5¢	$290.52	$196.16	-$94.36	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	Yesavg 47¢	$188	$186	-$2	57% 152-117 (269)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 43¢	$322.58	$161.14	-$161.44	62% 13685-8540 (22225)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Noavg 30.3¢	$168.55	$119.54	-$49.01	58% 18586-13652 (32238)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$143.64	$114.25	-$29.39	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$83.87	$91.24	+$7.37
└ No leg	Noavg 50.7¢	$59.77	$23.01	-$36.76
0010001000001100CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$64.79	$70.19	+$5.4	65% 1357-729 (2086)
SH SharkVision<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$37.43	$43.02	+$5.59	70% 1349-566 (1915)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$30	$29.15	-$0.85	67% 23277-11683 (34960)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$29.44	$26.05	-$3.39	60% 3326-2230 (5556)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$24.79	$24.12	-$0.67	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$20.25	$19.44	-$0.81	54% 2976-2554 (5530)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$22.5	$17.55	-$4.95	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.89	$14.49	+$0.5	58% 28421-20980 (49401)

olpy

Yes

Invested

$5,972.33

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$59.86

Record

72%

390-148 (538)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,309.12

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$986.78

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,603.71

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$271.29

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$750.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$880.72

Record

63%

1756-1042 (2798)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,108.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$131.51

Record

56%

2860-2289 (5149)

Both legs:

Yes$472.2245¢+$246.61

No$636.6852.9¢-$378.11

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$999.99

Value

$994.67

PnL

-$5.32

Record

89%

911-116 (1027)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$951.8

Value

$994.25

PnL

+$42.45

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

Both legs:

No$807.9525¢-$47.26

Yes$143.8547.1¢+$89.72

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$618.1

Value

$592.08

PnL

-$15.5

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$577.24

Value

$569.22

PnL

-$8.02

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

bernardi22ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,803.72

Value

$567.19

PnL

-$69.21

Record

56%

1267-984 (2251)

Both legs:

Yes$360.7874¢+$34.87

No$232.9626¢-$104.08

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$574.35

Value

$320.81

PnL

-$36.82

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$380.48

Value

$304.37

PnL

-$76.11

Record

52%

13732-12533 (26265)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$290.52

Value

$196.16

PnL

-$94.36

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

Yes

Invested

$188

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

57%

152-117 (269)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$322.58

Value

$161.14

PnL

-$161.44

Record

62%

13685-8540 (22225)

BillBenter2026CTR

Invested

$168.55

Value

$119.54

PnL

-$49.01

Record

58%

18586-13652 (32238)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$143.64

Value

$114.25

PnL

-$29.39

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Both legs:

Yes$83.8774¢+$7.37

No$59.7750.7¢-$36.76

0010001000001100CTR<$100

Invested

$64.79

Value

$70.19

PnL

+$5.4

Record

65%

1357-729 (2086)

SharkVision<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.43

Value

$43.02

PnL

+$5.59

Record

70%

1349-566 (1915)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$0.85

Record

67%

23277-11683 (34960)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.44

Value

$26.05

PnL

-$3.39

Record

60%

3326-2230 (5556)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$24.79

Value

$24.12

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.44

PnL

-$0.81

Record

54%

2976-2554 (5530)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$4.95

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$13.89

Value

$14.49

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 23 top traders (48%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.