Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$0.38

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 94.5¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,111

Combined PnL+$12.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$150.44

Total Shares646

Combined PnL-$12.3

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
C6 C63AMG	Noavg 75¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0	73% 864-327 (1191)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 93¢	$746.46	$694.29	-$52.17	70% 1349-566 (1915)
CA Cannae	Noavg 75¢	$366.72	$366.72	+$0	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 81.5¢	$228.54	$251.37	+$22.83	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 77.7¢	$212.83	$243.02	+$30.19	52% 13732-12533 (26265)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75¢	$130.53	$130.53	+$0	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$100.61	$98.6	-$2.01	48% 771-834 (1605)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 76¢	$48.64	$60.48	+$11.84	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$28.5	$28.5	+$0	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$31.71	$23.57	-$8.14	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$20.7	$20.7	-$0	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$14.68	$17.05	+$2.37	58% 18586-13652 (32238)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$15.74	$11.22	-$4.52	62% 13685-8540 (22225)

C63AMG

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

864-327 (1191)

SharkVision

Invested

$746.46

Value

$694.29

PnL

-$52.17

Record

70%

1349-566 (1915)

Cannae

Invested

$366.72

Value

$366.72

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

38791873984189

Invested

$228.54

Value

$251.37

PnL

+$22.83

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$212.83

Value

$243.02

PnL

+$30.19

Record

52%

13732-12533 (26265)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$130.53

Value

$130.53

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.61

Value

$98.6

PnL

-$2.01

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$48.64

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$11.84

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.71

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$8.14

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.68

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

18586-13652 (32238)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.74

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$4.52

Record

62%

13685-8540 (22225)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.