Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.1K
$69.33
32.6¢ → 34¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 32.5¢ | $765.85 | $812.82 | +$46.97 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 32.9¢ | $149.92 | $157.05 | +$7.13 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.5¢ | $56.22 | $59.68 | +$3.46 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $45.87 | $47.96 | +$2.09 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $232.83 | $28.29 | +$9.43 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $5.1 | $5.33 | +$0.23 | 62% 1124-677 (1801) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $1.03 | $1.05 | +$0.02 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
Invested
$765.85
Value
$812.82
PnL
+$46.97
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
Invested
$149.92
Value
$157.05
PnL
+$7.13
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$56.22
Value
$59.68
PnL
+$3.46
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$45.87
Value
$47.96
PnL
+$2.09
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
VeryLucky888Invested
$232.83
Value
$28.29
PnL
+$9.43
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.23
Record
62%
1124-677 (1801)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.