Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 57¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 1

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.3K

Combined PnL

$421.28

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 57.5¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares51,589

Combined PnL+$419.03

Under2 traders

Total Value$131.74

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$2.26

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Overavg 46¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$195.65	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Overavg 46¢	$8.9K	$9.1K	+$96.75	51% 1097-1058 (2155)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$198.34	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$431.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$942.88	$1.2K	+$233.35
MY myxi	Overavg 58¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$30.57	67% 378-183 (561)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 41.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$4.8	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$786.98	$793.76	+$6.78
KI kip3366	Overavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$40	46% 45-52 (97)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 46¢	$690	$705	+$15	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 46¢	$344.97	$351.74	+$7.09	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 46¢	$101.66	$166.86	+$1.11	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$127.17	$130.12	+$2.95	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 46¢	$547.95	$109.94	+$31.99	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$94.54	$87.7	-$6.84	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$64.78	$63.4	-$1.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 69.2¢	$29.76	$24.29	-$5.47
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 42¢	$87.83	$79.07	-$8.76	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$49.98	$49.39	-$0.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.6¢	$37.85	$29.69	-$8.16
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$3.18	+$0.88	52% 7504-6793 (14297)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.31	$1.62	-$0.69	53% 5642-5057 (10699)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$9,000

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$195.65

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

BoggsFromShawshank

Over

Invested

$8,901

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$96.75

Record

51%

1097-1058 (2155)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,004.93

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$198.34

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$3,062.0548.3¢-$431.7

Over$942.8846.9¢+$233.35

myxi

Over

Invested

$3,526.15

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$30.57

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,091.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$4.8

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

Under$1,304.7241.9¢-$11.58

Over$786.9858¢+$6.78

kip3366

Over

Invested

$1,840

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$40

Record

46%

45-52 (97)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$690

Value

$705

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$344.97

Value

$351.74

PnL

+$7.09

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$101.66

Value

$166.86

PnL

+$1.11

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$127.17

Value

$130.12

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$547.95

Value

$109.94

PnL

+$31.99

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$94.54

Value

$87.7

PnL

-$6.84

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

Under$64.7844.4¢-$1.38

Over$29.7669.2¢-$5.47

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.83

Value

$79.07

PnL

-$8.76

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$49.9842¢-$0.59

Over$37.8574.6¢-$8.16

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.31

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.