Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $106 held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$105.51

Combined PnL

-$154.56

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$84.01

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$6.85

Under7 traders

Total Value$21.5

Total Shares732

Combined PnL-$161.41

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Overavg 99¢	$45.54	$45.98	+$0.44	82% 2512-565 (3077)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 83¢	$30.71	$36.98	+$6.27	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$44.93	$20.29	-$24.64	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 86¢	$0.9	$1.05	+$0.15	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$15.18	$0.92	-$0.7	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 29.4¢	$99.69	$0.17	-$99.52	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$26.68	$0.1	-$26.58	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.83	$0.01	-$0.82	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$5.8	$0.01	-$5.79	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$3.36	$0.01	-$3.35	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Over

Invested

$45.54

Value

$45.98

PnL

+$0.44

Record

82%

2512-565 (3077)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$30.71

Value

$36.98

PnL

+$6.27

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.93

Value

$20.29

PnL

-$24.64

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.18

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.69

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$99.52

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.68

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$26.58

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.82

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.79

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.35

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.