Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hamburger SV (83%) · Hamburger SV at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Eintracht Frankfurt3¢Hamburger SV97¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hamburger SV

Consensus Traders

Hamburger SV 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$183.18

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 97¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHamburger SV at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hamburger SV

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eintracht Frankfurt3%

Hamburger SV97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hamburger SV5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,634

Combined PnL+$223.25

Eintracht Frankfurt1 trader

Total Value$414.02

Total Shares2,671

Combined PnL-$40.07

Hamburger SV — 83%Eintracht Frankfurt — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Hamburger SVavg 80.3¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$205.91	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 17¢	$454.09	$414.02	-$40.07	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Hamburger SVavg 82.5¢	$189.39	$198.65	+$9.26	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Eintracht Frankfurt leg	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 22.7¢	$57.81	$104.55	+$46.74
└ Hamburger SV leg	Hamburger SVavg 82.5¢	$131.58	$94.1	-$37.48
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Hamburger SVavg 74¢	$82.1	$93.75	+$11.65	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hamburger SVavg 77¢	$50.82	$55.44	+$4.62	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
AN Anon455<$100	Hamburger SVavg 82¢	$35.94	$37.04	+$1.1	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
HRTrading<$100	Hamburger SVavg 77¢	$14.79	$14.77	-$0.02	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

GoalLineGhost

Hamburger SV

Invested

$3,788.89

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$205.91

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$454.09

Value

$414.02

PnL

-$40.07

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$189.39

Value

$198.65

PnL

+$9.26

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Eintracht Frankfurt$57.8122.7¢+$46.74

Hamburger SV$131.5882.5¢-$37.48

topdogbigboi<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$82.1

Value

$93.75

PnL

+$11.65

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$50.82

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$4.62

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Anon455<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$35.94

Value

$37.04

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

HRTrading<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$14.79

Value

$14.77

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralHamburger SV at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hamburger SV

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hamburger SV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.