Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eintracht Frankfurt, while the market favors Hamburger SV (77%). 2 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)

2 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Eintracht Frankfurt (13%) · Eintracht Frankfurt at 24¢ · $108K held · ended Nov 1

Eintracht Frankfurt24¢Hamburger SV76¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Eintracht Frankfurt

Consensus Traders

Eintracht Frankfurt 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$108.1K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 23.5¢

-45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidEintracht Frankfurt at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eintracht Frankfurt

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Hamburger SV 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eintracht Frankfurt24%

Hamburger SV77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eintracht Frankfurt2 traders

Total Value$64.0K

Total Shares150,546

Combined PnL-$677.35

Hamburger SV14 traders

Total Value$39.6K

Total Shares58,936

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Eintracht Frankfurt — 13%Hamburger SV — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Eintracht Frankfurt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHamburger SV 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpHamburger SV 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHamburger SV 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedHamburger SV 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Hamburger SV 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 42.9¢	$59.9K	$59.3K	-$622.29	49% 167-175 (342)
UP UpTheBlues	Hamburger SVavg 57.1¢	$16.8K	$22.3K	+$5.5K	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
RN1	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	+$75	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
NooseracCTR	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 43¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$55.06	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Hamburger SVavg 57.6¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$95.01	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Hamburger SV leg	Hamburger SVavg 57.6¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$869.82
└ Eintracht Frankfurt leg	Eintracht Frankfurtavg 42.1¢	$1.8K	$980.34	-$774.81
HI hi774c	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$15.1	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
AN AnonymousUsername	Hamburger SVavg 57.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0.93	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
sapupu	Hamburger SVavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$12.93	56% 81-64 (145)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$10	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
CA Cannae	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$936.49	$944.71	+$8.21	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
VeryLucky888	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$570	$765	+$5	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
HRTrading	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$386.38	$433.72	+$47.34	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
0xheavy888	Hamburger SVavg 57.4¢	$292.51	$292.87	+$0.36	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
PP ppku6298<$100	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$95.16	$95.99	+$0.83	45% 96-119 (215)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$54.72	$60.48	+$0.48	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Hamburger SVavg 57¢	$29.64	$29.9	+$0.26	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Hamburger SVavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.85	-$0.05	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$59,924.59

Value

$59.3K

PnL

-$622.29

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

UpTheBlues

Hamburger SV

Invested

$16,844.4

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

RN1

Hamburger SV

Invested

$8,550

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

NooseracCTR

Eintracht Frankfurt

Invested

$4,734.96

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$55.06

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$4,400.65

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$95.01

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Hamburger SV$2,645.557.6¢+$869.82

Eintracht Frankfurt$1,755.1542.1¢-$774.81

hi774c

Hamburger SV

Invested

$1,720.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15.1

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

AnonymousUsername

Hamburger SV

Invested

$1,684.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0.93

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

sapupu

Hamburger SV

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$12.93

Record

56%

81-64 (145)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Hamburger SV

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Cannae

Hamburger SV

Invested

$936.49

Value

$944.71

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

VeryLucky888

Hamburger SV

Invested

$570

Value

$765

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

HRTrading

Hamburger SV

Invested

$386.38

Value

$433.72

PnL

+$47.34

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

0xheavy888

Hamburger SV

Invested

$292.51

Value

$292.87

PnL

+$0.36

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

ppku6298<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$95.16

Value

$95.99

PnL

+$0.83

Record

45%

96-119 (215)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$54.72

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Hamburger SV

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

AvoidEintracht Frankfurt at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eintracht Frankfurt

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Hamburger SV 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Eintracht Frankfurt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHamburger SV 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpHamburger SV 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHamburger SV 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedHamburger SV 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Hamburger SV 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eintracht Frankfurt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.