Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: 1st Half O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $770 held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.97

Combined PnL

$0.69

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$109.55

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$2.28

Under2 traders

Total Value$111.78

Total Shares207

Combined PnL+$2.97

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (3 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$482.2	$548.64	+$66.43	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$432	$432	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$50.2	$116.64	+$66.43
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Overavg 99¢	$99	$99.95	+$0.95	82% 2512-565 (3077)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$62.01	$63.18	+$1.17	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$46.8	$48.6	+$1.8	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$12.83	$9.6	-$3.23	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$482.2

Value

$548.64

PnL

+$66.43

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Under$43254¢+$0

Over$50.243¢+$66.43

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Over

Invested

$99

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.95

Record

82%

2512-565 (3077)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.01

Value

$63.18

PnL

+$1.17

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.8

Value

$48.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$12.83

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$3.23

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (3 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.