Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 63¢ · $663 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$663.05
$21.11
61¢ → 62.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Yesavg 61¢ | $444.07 | $452.56 | +$12.32 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $297.34 | $124.81 | -$7.47 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 61¢ | $182.71 | $64.26 | +$15.86 | 72% 6826-2619 (9445) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $13.86 | $13.86 | +$0 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $4.27 | $4.41 | +$0.18 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $3.15 | +$0.23 | 59% 64-45 (109) |
Invested
$444.07
Value
$452.56
PnL
+$12.32
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$297.34
Value
$124.81
PnL
-$7.47
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$182.71
Value
$64.26
PnL
+$15.86
Record
72%
6826-2619 (9445)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$13.86
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0.23
Record
59%
64-45 (109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.