Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$675.45

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 99.8¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,522

Combined PnL-$735.85

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares13,498

Combined PnL+$60.41

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 79.2¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$437.5	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$867.59	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 87¢	$870	$710	-$160	57% 572-439 (1011)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$1.7K	$634.24	$-1.1K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
PA Paul973973CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$200	$446.15	+$246.15	89% 923-118 (1041)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 87¢	$395.37	$322.66	-$72.71	59% 3437-2346 (5783)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$123.87	$275.78	+$151.91	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.5¢	$14.38	$166.29	+$151.91
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$109.49	$109.49	-$0
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$219.23	$227.58	+$8.35	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$201.54	$174.58	-$26.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.7¢	$17.69	$53	+$35.31
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 82.4¢	$175.79	$173.84	-$1.95	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 88¢	$134.05	$108.15	-$25.9	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
poshposh	Noavg 83¢	$124.5	$106.5	-$18	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$87.04	$86.33	-$0.72	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$58.84	$49.15	-$9.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$28.21	$37.18	+$8.97
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 79¢	$88.4	$79.45	-$8.95	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 80¢	$41.64	$36.96	-$4.68	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$15.8	$29	+$13.2	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$20.37	$18.42	-$1.95	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$4.15	$9.9	+$5.75	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 86¢	$10	$8.26	-$1.74	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
BE berlinskies<$100	Noavg 87¢	$10	$8.16	-$1.84	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.1	+$0	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.86	$4.26	-$0.6	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80¢	$3.57	$3.55	-$0.03	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

Anon455

Invested

$4,234.19

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$437.5

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,192.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$867.59

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$870

Value

$710

PnL

-$160

Record

57%

572-439 (1011)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,706.53

Value

$634.24

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Paul973973CTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$446.15

PnL

+$246.15

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

shiifoo

Invested

$395.37

Value

$322.66

PnL

-$72.71

Record

59%

3437-2346 (5783)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$123.87

Value

$275.78

PnL

+$151.91

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

Both legs:

Yes$14.382.5¢+$151.91

No$109.4971¢-$0

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$219.23

Value

$227.58

PnL

+$8.35

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

Both legs:

No$201.5482¢-$26.95

Yes$17.699.7¢+$35.31

topdogbigboi

Invested

$175.79

Value

$173.84

PnL

-$1.95

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$134.05

Value

$108.15

PnL

-$25.9

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

poshposh

Invested

$124.5

Value

$106.5

PnL

-$18

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$87.04

Value

$86.33

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

No$58.8485¢-$9.69

Yes$28.2122¢+$8.97

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$88.4

Value

$79.45

PnL

-$8.95

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$36.96

PnL

-$4.68

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.8

Value

$29

PnL

+$13.2

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$20.37

Value

$18.42

PnL

-$1.95

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$5.75

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.26

PnL

-$1.74

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

berlinskies<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$1.84

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.