Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.57

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,415

Combined PnL+$1.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$201.18

Total Shares2,114

Combined PnL-$17.09

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$900	$890	-$10	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90¢	$719.79	$723.84	+$4.04	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89.4¢	$689.98	$244.49	+$6.56	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$194.89	$185.14	-$9.74	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
NM NM-P	Noavg 89¢	$151.16	$151.16	+$0.85	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 89¢	$136.06	$136.06	+$0	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.7	$11.77	+$0.07	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.5	$9.03	-$0.47	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.82	$3.82	+$0	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3	$3	-$6.85	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.22	$0.2	-$0.02	54% 10448-8768 (19216)

GC-P

Invested

$900

Value

$890

PnL

-$10

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

Venusian

Invested

$719.79

Value

$723.84

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$689.98

Value

$244.49

PnL

+$6.56

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.89

Value

$185.14

PnL

-$9.74

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

NM-P

Invested

$151.16

Value

$151.16

PnL

+$0.85

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$136.06

Value

$136.06

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.47

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$6.85

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.