FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 79¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$45.21

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 78.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,632

Combined PnL+$45.44

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.42

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$0.23

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 34.7¢	$4.3K	$3.0K	$-1.3K	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.7¢	$3.6K	$2.2K	$-1.4K
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.5¢	$720.16	$801.91	+$81.75
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 75.7¢	$839.53	$837.08	-$2.44	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 75.3¢	$575.22	$595.68	+$20.46	50% 33443-33004 (66447)
0xheavy888	Underavg 63.9¢	$364.44	$470.17	-$8.25	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 62¢	$94.86	$123.93	+$29.07	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 63¢	$19.79	$25.44	+$5.65	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 62¢	$3.1	$4.05	+$0.95	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.2	-$0.4	59% 30487-21198 (51685)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 18.9¢	$2.52	$2.93	+$0.41	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.29	-$0.25	54% 56642-48828 (105470)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,272.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

Over$3,552.6134.7¢$-1.4K

Under$720.1670.5¢+$81.75

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$839.53

Value

$837.08

PnL

-$2.44

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$575.22

Value

$595.68

PnL

+$20.46

Record

50%

33443-33004 (66447)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$364.44

Value

$470.17

PnL

-$8.25

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$94.86

Value

$123.93

PnL

+$29.07

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$19.79

Value

$25.44

PnL

+$5.65

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

59%

30487-21198 (51685)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.