FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 78¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 31

Over78¢Under22¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

-$58.39

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares22,127

Combined PnL+$1.15

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares12,514

Combined PnL-$59.54

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 77¢	$16.8K	$16.8K	+$0	51% 214-208 (422)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 23¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$43.3	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 23¢	$817.22	$818.77	-$16.24	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 76.5¢	$194.42	$195.56	+$1.15	65% 1708-928 (2636)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 77¢	$49.55	$49.55	+$0	51% 476-459 (935)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 22.7¢	$49.05	$48.6	-$0.45	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 77¢	$8.19	$8.19	+$0	50% 678-674 (1352)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.32	$6.97	+$0.45	39% 419-667 (1086)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$16,784.54

Value

$16.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

214-208 (422)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$2,002.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$43.3

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$817.22

Value

$818.77

PnL

-$16.24

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$194.42

Value

$195.56

PnL

+$1.15

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$49.55

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

476-459 (935)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.05

Value

$48.6

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

678-674 (1352)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.45

Record

39%

419-667 (1086)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.