FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 91¢ · $328 held · ends Oct 31

Over91¢Under9¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$328.5

Combined PnL

$0.76

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 90.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$277.93

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$1.48

Under4 traders

Total Value$50.57

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$0.72

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Socialista	Overavg 91¢	$273	$274.5	+$1.5	63% 2700-1602 (4302)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$27.2	$25.69	-$1.51	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$13.26	$14.08	+$0.83	50% 33354-32918 (66272)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$6.09	$5.75	-$0.34	59% 45758-32100 (77858)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$4.75	$5.04	+$0.3	53% 15944-14125 (30069)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 92¢	$3.45	$3.43	-$0.02	53% 4546-4095 (8641)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$273

Value

$274.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

63%

2700-1602 (4302)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.2

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.26

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

33354-32918 (66272)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.09

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.34

Record

59%

45758-32100 (77858)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

15944-14125 (30069)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.