Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (100%) · BV Borussia 09 Dortmund at 67¢ · $715 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
6
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 100%
$714.76
-$2.2
66.7¢ → 66.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralBV Borussia 09 Dortmund at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on BV Borussia 09 Dortmund. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 67¢ | $338.73 | $333.78 | -$2.42 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 0xheavy888 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 66¢ | $202.18 | $203.72 | +$1.53 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
DA darkumbreon88 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 66.8¢ | $128.34 | $127.69 | -$0.65 | 65% 1708-928 (2636) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 67¢ | $38.19 | $37.62 | -$0.57 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 67¢ | $8.71 | $8.65 | -$0.07 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.3 | -$0.03 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$338.73
Value
$333.78
PnL
-$2.42
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
0xheavy888Invested
$202.18
Value
$203.72
PnL
+$1.53
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$128.34
Value
$127.69
PnL
-$0.65
Record
65%
1708-928 (2636)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$37.62
PnL
-$0.57
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$8.65
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
VeryLucky888
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $333.78
0xheavy888
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $203.72
darkumbreon88
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $127.69
LeLynxMalynx
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $37.62
Forecastication2
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $8.65
ameisgoat11
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — $3.3