Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, while the market favors FC Bayern München (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (67%) · BV Borussia 09 Dortmund at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

FC Bayern München54¢BV Borussia 09 Dortmund46¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Consensus Traders

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 67%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$81.13

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBV Borussia 09 Dortmund at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors FC Bayern München 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München54%

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Bayern München2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,598

Combined PnL-$38.93

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,827

Combined PnL-$42.2

FC Bayern München — 33%BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	FC Bayern Münchenavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$39.27	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 45.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$34.58	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
CA CannaeCTR	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 45.8¢	$370.92	$364.44	-$6.48	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 46¢	$52.9	$51.75	-$1.15	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 53¢	$12	$12	+$0.34	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 45¢	$8.1	$8.1	+$0	54% 2988-2575 (5563)

Forecastication2

FC Bayern München

Invested

$2,009.55

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$39.27

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

GoalLineGhostCTR

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$1,782.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$34.58

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

CannaeCTR

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$370.92

Value

$364.44

PnL

-$6.48

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$52.9

Value

$51.75

PnL

-$1.15

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$12

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Research grade

NeutralBV Borussia 09 Dortmund at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors FC Bayern München 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BV Borussia 09 Dortmund wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.