Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Bayern München (56%) · FC Bayern München at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund2¢FC Bayern München98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Bayern München

Consensus Traders

FC Bayern München 56%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$0.16

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 98¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Bayern München at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern München

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund2%

FC Bayern München98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Bayern München5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$3.93

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund4 traders

Total Value$16.48

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$4.09

FC Bayern München — 56%BV Borussia 09 Dortmund — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on FC Bayern München. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Bayern München 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFC Bayern München 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Bayern München 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FC Bayern München 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	FC Bayern Münchenavg 95.6¢	$838.61	$844.12	+$5.51	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
0F 0F62	FC Bayern Münchenavg 96.4¢	$322	$320.64	-$2.02	53% 2081-1863 (3944)
LE LeLynxMalynx	FC Bayern Münchenavg 96¢	$121.92	$122.24	+$0.32	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 96.3¢	$28.89	$28.88	-$0.02	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
HRTrading<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 95.4¢	$21.84	$21.97	+$0.14	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 3.5¢	$12.03	$12.89	+$0.86	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 3.9¢	$4.6	$2.37	-$2.23	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 3.6¢	$3.76	$1.03	-$2.73	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BV Borussia 09 Dortmundavg 3.5¢	$0.18	$0.19	+$0.01	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

Cannae

FC Bayern München

Invested

$838.61

Value

$844.12

PnL

+$5.51

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

0F62

FC Bayern München

Invested

$322

Value

$320.64

PnL

-$2.02

Record

53%

2081-1863 (3944)

LeLynxMalynx

FC Bayern München

Invested

$121.92

Value

$122.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$28.89

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

HRTrading<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$21.84

Value

$21.97

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$12.03

Value

$12.89

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$4.6

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$2.23

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$3.76

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$2.73

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralFC Bayern München at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FC Bayern München

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on FC Bayern München. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Bayern München 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrFC Bayern München 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Bayern München 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000FC Bayern München 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Bayern München wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.