Will FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 100%
$25.2K
$104.1
84¢ → 84.5¢
+1% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 13 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 84¢ | $6.1K | $6.1K | +$36.11 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
AN Anon455 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$0 | 55% 2909-2339 (5248) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$21.84 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 84¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$20 | 53% 5632-4970 (10602) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 84¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$18.51 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 84¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$7.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 84¢ | $168 | $168 | +$0 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 84¢ | $168 | $168 | +$0 | 54% 4884-4115 (8999) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $84.17 | $84.17 | +$0 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $21.84 | $21.97 | +$0.13 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $12.6 | $12.6 | +$0 | 39% 418-667 (1085) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.58 | $1.58 | +$0.01 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
Invested
$6,067.11
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$36.11
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$4,200
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
2909-2339 (5248)
Invested
$3,669.75
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$21.84
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$3,360
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$20
Record
53%
5632-4970 (10602)
Invested
$3,107.51
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$18.51
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
Invested
$2,982.96
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,260
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
0xheavy888Invested
$168
Value
$168
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$168
Value
$168
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4884-4115 (8999)
Invested
$84.17
Value
$84.17
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
Invested
$21.84
Value
$21.97
PnL
+$0.13
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
418-667 (1085)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
LuckyLoo
No — $6.1K
Anon455
No — $4.2K
GoalLineGhost
No — $3.7K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
No — $3.4K
AnonymousUsername
No — $3.1K
Cannae
No — $3.0K
VeryLucky888
No — $1.3K
0xheavy888
No — $168
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
No — $168
hedgevaultmainnet1
No — $84.17