Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.8K
$40.24
88.3¢ → 89.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 89¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$11.64 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$26.64 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 88¢ | $303.58 | $329.28 | +$1.85 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $4.22 | $4.42 | +$0.19 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.87 | $1.79 | -$0.08 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
Invested
$2,071.92
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$11.64
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,391.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$26.64
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$303.58
Value
$329.28
PnL
+$1.85
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.