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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 64¢ · $364 held · ends Oct 31

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$364.12

Combined PnL

-$0.77

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 63.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$213.2

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$3.3

No3 traders

Total Value$150.92

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$2.53

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 65¢	$143	$143	-$3.3	74% 6661-2381 (9042)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 36¢	$110.38	$111.92	+$1.53	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$70.2	$70.2	+$0	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$36.34	$37.45	+$0.58	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$5.93	$1.55	+$0.42	58% 41809-30357 (72166)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$143

Value

$143

PnL

-$3.3

Record

74%

6661-2381 (9042)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$110.38

Value

$111.92

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.2

Value

$70.2

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$36.34

Value

$37.45

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.