Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$527.65

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares16,968

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares16,148

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$6.0K	$7.7K	+$1.7K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
CH chongchong37	Overavg 54¢	$8.1K	$6.3K	$-2.0K	54% 110-94 (204)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$290.02	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$614.87	$258.51	-$356.37	98% 13071-207 (13278)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 53.3¢	$259.01	$243.69	-$15.32	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.3¢	$225.25	$177.66	-$47.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 29.7¢	$33.76	$66.03	+$32.27
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 75¢	$274.1	$153.5	-$120.61	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 54.6¢	$91.91	$138.53	+$46.62	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
└ Under leg	Underavg 9.5¢	$12.67	$77.62	+$64.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.6¢	$79.24	$60.91	-$18.32
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 61.4¢	$102.24	$69.97	-$32.27	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$15.28	$18.14	+$2.87	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$13.69	$15.21	+$1.51	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$6,032.95

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

chongchong37

Over

Invested

$8,100

Value

$6.3K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

110-94 (204)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,906.3

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$290.02

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$614.87

Value

$258.51

PnL

-$356.37

Record

98%

13071-207 (13278)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$259.01

Value

$243.69

PnL

-$15.32

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Over$225.2553.3¢-$47.59

Under$33.7629.7¢+$32.27

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$274.1

Value

$153.5

PnL

-$120.61

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$91.91

Value

$138.53

PnL

+$46.62

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Both legs:

Under$12.679.5¢+$64.95

Over$79.2454.6¢-$18.32

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$102.24

Value

$69.97

PnL

-$32.27

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.28

Value

$18.14

PnL

+$2.87

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.69

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.