Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$325.56

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,068

Combined PnL+$18.97

Under4 traders

Total Value$54.89

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL-$344.53

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Overavg 96¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$0	69% 1503-682 (2185)
MR MrBently<$100	Overavg 67¢	$39.94	$57.22	+$17.29	53% 543-485 (1028)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 24¢	$318.35	$53.06	-$311.72	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 75¢	$6	$7.68	+$1.68	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$11.25	$1.8	-$9.45	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$59.61	$0.03	-$19.64	48% 927-999 (1926)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.73	$0.01	-$3.72	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$4,800

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

1503-682 (2185)

MrBently<$100

Over

Invested

$39.94

Value

$57.22

PnL

+$17.29

Record

53%

543-485 (1028)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$318.35

Value

$53.06

PnL

-$311.72

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$1.68

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.25

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$9.45

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$19.64

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.72

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.