Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (35%) · No at 54¢ · $88K held · ended Oct 31

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 35%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$88.4K

Combined PnL

$6.6K

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 54¢

-8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$48.3K

Total Shares50,563

Combined PnL+$15.4K

No8 traders

Total Value$36.4K

Total Shares57,917

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Yes — 65%No — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$11.3K	$25.2K	+$13.9K	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
AN Anon455	Noavg 58.2¢	$23.8K	$16.2K	$-7.5K	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 49.1¢	$10.7K	$12.2K	+$1.5K	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 67.2¢	$10.7K	$11.9K	+$1.2K	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
GR graziek99CTR	Yesavg 96¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$102.08	88% 401-56 (457)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 80¢	$5.0K	$3.4K	$-1.6K	64% 293-165 (458)
SH SharkVisionCTR	Yesavg 92.4¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$99.63	71% 1362-567 (1929)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 97.7¢	$4.5K	$3.3K	$-1.1K	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 97.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$78.16
└ No leg	Noavg 12.8¢	$1.8K	$715.34	$-1.1K
LH lhetorar	Noavg 61.5¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$355.63	72% 149-58 (207)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 79¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$750	67% 2633-1282 (3915)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Yesavg 72.5¢	$982.21	$937.3	-$44.91	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 54.4¢	$356.28	$526.48	+$170.2	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 73.9¢	$388	$474.3	+$86.3	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 84.7¢	$459.63	$429.16	-$30.47	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
ER72SEN	Noavg 27.9¢	$386.92	$367.53	-$19.38	67% 300-149 (449)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$110.45	$225.92	+$115.47	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$235.01	$197.13	-$37.87	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.9¢	$117.24	$147.36	+$30.12
└ No leg	Noavg 55.6¢	$117.76	$49.77	-$67.99
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$400	$182	+$94	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$483.75	$177.12	-$306.64	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
└ No leg	Noavg 22.5¢	$457.83	$141.34	-$316.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.4¢	$25.92	$35.77	+$9.85
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 43.7¢	$63.31	$128.81	+$67.42	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$110	$104.26	-$5.74	67% 23336-11741 (35077)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.2¢	$60	$75.71	+$15.71
└ No leg	Noavg 37.7¢	$50	$28.55	-$21.45
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 69.2¢	$41.91	$56.48	+$14.57	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$21.22	$47.75	+$23.87	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$9.83	$11.67	+$1.85	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.5	+$0.1	54% 6286-5324 (11610)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,330.8

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$13.9K

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Anon455

Invested

$23,771.06

Value

$16.2K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$10,706.6

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,707.91

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

graziek99CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,900

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$102.08

Record

88%

401-56 (457)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

64%

293-165 (458)

SharkVisionCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,422.37

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$99.63

Record

71%

1362-567 (1929)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,461.53

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Both legs:

Yes$2,679.4197.7¢-$78.16

No$1,782.1112.8¢$-1.1K

lhetorar

Invested

$2,901.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$355.63

Record

72%

149-58 (207)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,370

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$750

Record

67%

2633-1282 (3915)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Yes

Invested

$982.21

Value

$937.3

PnL

-$44.91

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$356.28

Value

$526.48

PnL

+$170.2

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$388

Value

$474.3

PnL

+$86.3

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$459.63

Value

$429.16

PnL

-$30.47

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

ER72SEN

Invested

$386.92

Value

$367.53

PnL

-$19.38

Record

67%

300-149 (449)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.45

Value

$225.92

PnL

+$115.47

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$235.01

Value

$197.13

PnL

-$37.87

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Yes$117.2460.9¢+$30.12

No$117.7655.6¢-$67.99

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$182

PnL

+$94

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Invested

$483.75

Value

$177.12

PnL

-$306.64

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Both legs:

No$457.8322.5¢-$316.49

Yes$25.9267.4¢+$9.85

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$63.31

Value

$128.81

PnL

+$67.42

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$104.26

PnL

-$5.74

Record

67%

23336-11741 (35077)

Both legs:

Yes$6062.2¢+$15.71

No$5037.7¢-$21.45

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.91

Value

$56.48

PnL

+$14.57

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.22

Value

$47.75

PnL

+$23.87

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$1.85

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 23 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.