Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold VfB Stuttgart (71%) · VfB Stuttgart at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Bayer 04 Leverkusen<1¢VfB Stuttgart>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

VfB Stuttgart

Consensus Traders

VfB Stuttgart 71%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$315.13

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 99.7¢

+49% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralVfB Stuttgart at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

VfB Stuttgart

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bayer 04 Leverkusen0%

VfB Stuttgart100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

VfB Stuttgart5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,028

Combined PnL+$644.67

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 traders

Total Value$3.47

Total Shares993

Combined PnL-$329.54

VfB Stuttgart — 71%Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on VfB Stuttgart. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bayer 04 Leverkusen) and the top 1000 (5 on VfB Stuttgart) disagree here.

whaleVfB Stuttgart 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVfB Stuttgart 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBayer 04 Leverkusen 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000VfB Stuttgart 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	VfB Stuttgartavg 65.8¢	$736.45	$1.1K	+$379.08	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost	VfB Stuttgartavg 66.3¢	$488.97	$735.11	+$246.14	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	VfB Stuttgartavg 84¢	$72.9	$79.83	+$6.93	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
HRTrading<$100	VfB Stuttgartavg 66.3¢	$57.24	$65.84	+$8.6	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
poshposh<$100	VfB Stuttgartavg 83.9¢	$20.87	$24.79	+$3.92	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 36¢	$360	$2.42	-$253.04	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
0xheavy888CTR	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 36¢	$77.55	$1.05	-$76.5	55% 7125-5714 (12839)

UpTheBlues

VfB Stuttgart

Invested

$736.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$379.08

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

VfB Stuttgart

Invested

$488.97

Value

$735.11

PnL

+$246.14

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

topdogbigboi<$100

VfB Stuttgart

Invested

$72.9

Value

$79.83

PnL

+$6.93

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

HRTrading<$100

VfB Stuttgart

Invested

$57.24

Value

$65.84

PnL

+$8.6

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

poshposh<$100

VfB Stuttgart

Invested

$20.87

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$3.92

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$360

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$253.04

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

0xheavy888CTR

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$77.55

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$76.5

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

Research grade

NeutralVfB Stuttgart at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

VfB Stuttgart

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on VfB Stuttgart. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bayer 04 Leverkusen) and the top 1000 (5 on VfB Stuttgart) disagree here.

whaleVfB Stuttgart 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVfB Stuttgart 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBayer 04 Leverkusen 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000VfB Stuttgart 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that VfB Stuttgart wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.