Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $362 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$362.38

Combined PnL

-$98.97

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$332.78

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$40.32

Under3 traders

Total Value$29.6

Total Shares512

Combined PnL-$139.29

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shiifoo	Overavg 92¢	$270.62	$294.14	+$23.52	60% 3351-2263 (5614)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 52¢	$21.84	$38.64	+$16.8	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$73.32	$20.05	-$53.28	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$79.28	$9.44	-$69.84	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
MA maxiplayerCTR<$100	Underavg 7.9¢	$16.28	$0.1	-$16.18	77% 716-219 (935)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$270.62

Value

$294.14

PnL

+$23.52

Record

60%

3351-2263 (5614)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$21.84

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$16.8

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.32

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$53.28

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.28

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$69.84

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

maxiplayerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.28

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$16.18

Record

77%

716-219 (935)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.