Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 96¢ · $86K held · ended Oct 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$85.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 95.9¢

+24% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$59.9K

Total Shares68,117

Combined PnL-$354.97

Yes4 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares112,746

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76.5¢	$24.4K	$30.5K	$-1.3K	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 23.4¢	$23.7K	$23.8K	+$118.77	53% 1134-991 (2125)
AN Anon455	Noavg 76.6¢	$19.8K	$19.8K	-$30.58	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.1¢	$4.8K	$5.8K	+$1.0K	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$31.73	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 22.1¢	$3.3K	$2.0K	$-1.4K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
FO foooool	Noavg 76.5¢	$521.03	$497.98	-$23.05	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 75.6¢	$382.44	$366.85	-$15.59	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 79.2¢	$288	$307.77	+$19.77	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 78¢	$287.73	$291.42	+$3.69	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$100.1	$69.9	-$30.19	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 77¢	$30.13	$30.91	+$0.78	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 81¢	$12.15	$14.14	+$1.99	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$10.46	$10.56	+$0.11	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$10.61	$9.35	-$1.26	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$7.9	+$0.1	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$6.26	$4.18	-$2.09	53% 2174-1925 (4099)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$24,361.56

Value

$30.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$23,723.98

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$118.77

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

Anon455

Invested

$19,846.92

Value

$19.8K

PnL

-$30.58

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

oieshfn345

Invested

$4,783.29

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,275.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$31.73

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,327.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

foooool

Invested

$521.03

Value

$497.98

PnL

-$23.05

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$382.44

Value

$366.85

PnL

-$15.59

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$288

Value

$307.77

PnL

+$19.77

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$287.73

Value

$291.42

PnL

+$3.69

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.1

Value

$69.9

PnL

-$30.19

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$30.13

Value

$30.91

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$1.99

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$10.46

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.61

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.