Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 71¢ · $437 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$437.25
-$2.79
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 71¢ | $157.16 | $156.05 | -$1.11 | 65% 1707-928 (2635) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 71¢ | $159.75 | $120.49 | -$0.55 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $93.92 | $93.25 | -$0.66 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $67.45 | $67.45 | -$0.48 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
Invested
$157.16
Value
$156.05
PnL
-$1.11
Record
65%
1707-928 (2635)
VeryLucky888Invested
$159.75
Value
$120.49
PnL
-$0.55
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$93.92
Value
$93.25
PnL
-$0.66
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$67.45
Value
$67.45
PnL
-$0.48
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.